How to Use Statistics and Probability to Guide Your Gambling Decisions

Many people hate math during school, but it’s indeed useful, especially for the decisions we will have to make during life, that requires some probability calculations, including the factor of luck. A lot of people underestimate the power of statistics and probability in everyday life, or some particular situations like gambling are.

There are plenty of gambling games, and all of them come with a pack of different rules, variables, symbols, and colors. All those combinations are known as events. For example, in craps, when you throw two dice, you know that there are six possible events for every dice, but when combined with the second one, there are a lot more. The roulette also has near 50:50 chances for some event to occur, and we say “nearly” because there can be one or two zero-stops, that ruin the while math. Dealing cards is also an event, no matter if you play poker or blackjack. You have a deck of 52 cards, and you get only two at the beginning. If there are more decks, the events become waterier, and they have fewer chances to occur.

Those who play bingo also can determine the probabilities, and you can check online bingo Australia services to test if your math works in your favor.

But, let’s see what’s behind that math?

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The three basic things we need to know are definite probabilities, expected value, and volatility index. Every game has a big, but a still limited number of possible outcomes. No matter if you toss a dice, or you choose two cards from the deck, every outcome is already predicted. Even when you play poker, you have some chance to win the rarest hand known as royal flash, no matter how small it is.

It seems like a lot of things to learn and calculate, but experienced gamblers aren’t all scientists who do complicated calculations every time before they take a seat on the table. They just know how to combine their knowledge in math with their gut feeling, so they can estimate if they have a chance or not.

Probabilities are important so you can estimate the odds, but there are many other factors here too. It all depends on the number of players in the game, the pre-calculated probabilities, and personal estimations, but also the choices the gambler makes due to that math.

Statistics and probabilities are also valuable for the expected value to win, and they aren’t just for the way the gambler plays the game.

So, we can define that:

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  • Definite probabilities refer to something that is probable, like an event or circumstance. It defines the total number of possible outcomes of some events, and also the chance of some events to occur due to known conditions.
  • Expected value is something that we expect as a result based on a large number of previous experiments. In gambling, that can be something like, for example, getting two 6 when rolling dice after a few throws, or how many hands the poker player should play, until they get the preferred outcome.
  • Volatility is also known as standard deviation, and it shows the risk of losing, or predicting the frequency of lost hands before the gambler wins bigger.

So, you can see where we are getting

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Gambling is one of the activities that is mostly based on probability, or some people name it luck. But, the statistic operations exist and if we know how to perform them, it would be easier for us to predict the gambling outcome. But, the problem is when we play games with plenty of possible outcomes, including the good and bad ones. The things go that far so the people try to calculate the odds when they play slots, even though it depends on the type of game, number of rows and allowed combinations and the number of symbols used for that particular game.

But, while we are here, we must mention that gambling is never raw math because there are so many factors that can influence the result. Let’s take poker as an example. You may keep track of the game while you are three players on the table. But if a fourth one comes and joins, all the calculations are not worth anything, and you need to start all over again.

And we must confess – it’s a lot of job for just a few hands of card games. We all want to be winners, but what’s the cost of it. Also, we are all aware that statistics is one of the most complicated math disciplines, and people who know how to do that are God’s favorites. If you struggle too hard with math estimations, instead of enjoying the hype and excitement, you will only end up being nervous and frustrated, because as we all know – the reality is more than a few math operations and formulas.

But if you still insist, you must understand the statistical significance when it comes to comparing two possible outcomes. Also, you need to analyze all the data you have so you can get to the possible outcome, and then make logical decisions. After that, you need to find the correlation between the events, create the network of probability distributions, and get your pen and pad and start calculating.

Do you really have time for that?

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Even though this article is about using statistics and probability for gambling, they should only be your guidance outline. If you make decisions too early, you will probably end up getting nothing from the game. You should adapt to the conditions between the calculations and the final outcome. And there are a lot more factors and math that can influence the result. Maybe one day you are luckier than the others, but you won’t ever get to know if you lose yourself over the math.

So, do it, but don’t stick to it. You will miss the excitement. And we assure you that unless you are a professional gambler who is doing that for living, you don’t need to lose your head in those numbers and probabilities.