5 Tips for Using Statistics and Probability to Guide Your Gambling Decision

Many people think that luck is the ruling factor when it comes to gambling in casino games. While that may be partially true, it is essential to know that it is not the most major factor that influences casino games. The actual significant aspect that is responsible for deciding whether you win or lose while gambling is actually probability and statistics – two of the most major mathematical concepts that have a huge impact in casino games.

According to gambling canada, one of the most popular gambling portals in Canada, knowing statistics and how to use them to your advantage is one of the most major aspects of gambling in any casino game. There are several statistics and probability rules that apply to gambling and people, knowingly or unknowingly, follow them every time they gamble in a game.

However, there are many people out there that don’t use mathematical probabilities as effectively as they should while they are playing at a casino. To ensure that doesn’t happen with you, we have written this extensive article that consists of all the tips and advice you will ever need for utilizing statistics to their full extent and using them to enhance your gambling decision. Read the article till the end so that you don’t miss out on crucial details.

Know that statistics and probability indicate the chances of something happening, not a guarantee

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One of the most fundamental rules you need to know before you start integrating the various rules of probability and chances into your casino games is that you should always be aware that the probability you will get with your calculations only show chances, not fixed guarantees.

For example, even if you calculate the chances of you winning out a lottery in your next slot role as 99%, there will always be that one percent chance that you might lose and waste whatever money you put into the game. Having a fundamental grasp of how chances and probability works is essential for any player that is looking to use them.

Probability only dictates the chances of something happening in an event but it doesn’t explicitly say that only one particular event will happen without any failure, especially not in a casino game. Most of the probabilities that players see in casinos lie between the range of 0% to 100%, not above nor below.

Use Venn diagrams and charts to simplify things

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Before you make your gambling decision during a game, create a Venn diagram or chart in your head or a paper to get a visual representation of your chances. A Venn diagram is considered to be one of the most effective ways of showing probabilities occuring in a given space. For example, if you are playing poker, create a Venn diagram or a pie chart in your head to calculate the chances of you getting a better hand than your opponent and then make a decision whether you want to fold or increase the bet.

These diagrams give an accurate representation of various probabilities. Additionally, they also assist you in giving a clear cut idea of how many chances each event has. This can’t be done using mere numbers where you can only see how much chances of an event happening are. A Venn diagram actually shows you the correlation and impact each event has over the other and why they affect each other so much.

Calculate the probabilities of multiple events

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Consider that you are planning to bet on a particular number on a roulette table. The only natural choice will be to calculate what chances you have of the ball landing on your number, right? Well, not really. While calculating individual probabilities of numbers is a good idea, when there are multiple aspects to a game where each aspect has its own chance and own probability, it becomes near to impossible to calculate your chances like that.

The best thing you can do, however, is calculating the probabilities of multiple events happening. If you bet on a particular number on the roulette table, it is a good idea to figure out the chances of other numbers and colors too. Having their chances on the back of your mind gives you a fair bit of idea of which number is chosen with each turn and whether putting your money on one particular number is worth it.

Add your probabilities correctly

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Taking the example from the previous point, suppose you want to bet on 8 in the roulette table. 8 is both a black spot and an even number spot. Naturally, you will think that calculating the chances of a number that is either black or even is simply done by adding them together into one giant probability.

Unfortunately, that isn’t even close to the truth. Probabilities where the chances of two different events happening are dependent on each other are actually called a different type of probability – intersecting event probability. These events share a few outcomes on common grounds and thus adding them both up doesn’t make much sense as you will have a few events occurring repeatedly.

To get the correct value in this scenario, you need to ensure that you add the individual probabilities of each event and then subtract them with the probability of the event of both of their probabilities combined.

Understand why the house always wins

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It is vital that you understand casinos stand to win no matter what decision the player takes. There is a common saying amongst casino players that says – “The house (the casino) always wins.” There is actually a mathematical reason behind that about why casinos are the richest after each game transpires.

The amount you are supposed to win after a set number of games is called the expected value or EV. In the case of casinos, EVs are always in the negative to the player’s disadvantage in all of the casino games. Essentially, no matter how many games you play and win, the actual profits go to the casino.

It is important that you consider this before you utilize your probabilities to guide your gambling decisions.


There are several important tips that you should consider before using statistics and probability to guide your gambling decision. We hope this article was insightful for you and if it was, then please consider following our article for regular updates as it will help us out immensely.